Interesting Real Estate Predictions - Solana Beach

Santa Barbara, Calif., will be one of the best U.S. housing markets in the next 5 years, per this study:
The #1 city, however, is just north of the California border.

Miami and Fort Lauderdale homes are expected to lose more value. In contrast, Medford, Ore., prices are expected to grow at an annualized rate of 11.2%.

As the housing market moves toward recovery in fits and starts, it's clear that the pace will not be the same everywhere. While would-be homebuyers in California struggle to find anything for sale and prices tick up in Phoenix, homeowners in Chicago aren't sure their property values have quit falling.

Business Insider has put together a list of the 15 best housing markets for the next five years and the 15 worst, based on data from Fiserv Case-Shiller.

Nationwide, home prices are predicted to rise 0.3% in the next year and 3.3% over the next five years. But that number obscures the spread among cities, as we learn every time we parse a new set of statistics.

The city where Business Insider sees the biggest potential for price growth is Medford, Ore., a metropolitan area of about 207,000 people 27 miles north of the California border. Unemployment there is 10.8%, and the median family income is $46,000 a year.

Prices in the Medford area have fallen 39.8% since their peak in mid-2006. In the next five years, prices there are predicted to rise at an annualized rate of 11.2%, the highest predicted growth of metro areas nationwide.

At the other end of the spectrum is Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, a metro area of about 2.5 million people. Prices have risen in Florida in recent months, but the Business Insider analysis of the Fiserv Case-Shiller data doesn't see that continuing. Prices in the Miami area are expected to decrease at an annualized rate of 0.6% over the next five years.

The Miami area experienced one of the largest price drops in the bust, with prices currently down 50.4% from their peak in early 2007. Unemployment stands at 9.2%, and the median family income is $47,700 a year. Neighboring Fort Lauderdale is predicted to be the second-worst market, with an annualized price drop of 0.2% predicted for the next five years.

These are the markets that Business Insider and Fiserv Case-Shiller predict will have the greatest growth in housing prices from 2012 to 2017 and their annualized rate of growth:

• Medford, Ore: 11.2%..
• Panama City-Lynn Haven-Panama City Beach, Fla.: 9.5%.
• Santa Fe, N.M.: 8.9%.
• Madera-Chowchilla, Calif.: 8.8%.
• Sebastian-Vero Beach, Fla.: 8.7%
• Santa Barbara-Santa Maria-Goleta, Calif.: 8.4%.
• Ocala, Fla.: 8%.
• Napa, Calif.: 8%.
• Gulfport-Biloxi, Miss.: 8%.
• Tucson, Ariz.: 7.9%.
• Brunswick, Ga.: 7.9%.
• Yakima, Wash.: 7.8%.
• Eugene-Springfield, Ore.: 7.7%.
• Yuma, Ariz.: 7.7%.
• Glen Falls, N.Y.: 7.7%.

These are the 15 metro areas expected to see the least housing price growth between 2012 and 2017 and the annualized expected change:

• Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, Fla.: down 0.6%.
• Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Deerfield Beach, Fla.: down 0.2%
• Naples-Marco Island, Fla.: up 0.9%.
• Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, Ariz.: up 1.1%.
• Midland, Texas: up 1.2%
• Elmira, N.Y.: up 1.3%.
• Denver-Aurora-Broomfield, Colo.: up 1.3%.
• Atlantic City-Hammonton, N.J.: up 1.4%.
• Clarksville, Tenn.-Ky.: up 1.4%.
• Ann Arbor, Mich.: up 1.5%
• Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, D.C.-Va.-Md.: up 1.6%.
• Ithaca, N.Y.: up 1.7%.
• Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro-Franklin, Tenn.: up 1.7%.
• Amarillo, Texas: up 1.7%.
• Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, Fla.: up 1.8%.

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